As a little hurricane named Sandy worked its way up the east coast, I cancelled
a planned trip to the Myrtle Beach condo and opted instead for a trip to my sailboat
on the Potomac River. Sandy did little damage to the Myrtle Beach area but has her sights squarely set for a
wide area from south of the Potomac to Boston. Might as well prepare the boat.
As I drove through the Northern Neck of Virginia to the town of Kinsale, I noticed many farmers had planted winter wheat
crops which are like beautiful green lawns at this point. Other farms have corn
and soybeans ready for harvest. With the possibility of a devastating storm in a
few days, why aren’t the farmers getting those crops in? I remembered this past
spring. Virginia had a very mild winter and the winter wheat crop was ready for
harvest in early May but harvesting did not begin until June. I wondered why.
On a sailing trip during the summer, I told the crew my winter wheat observations. One crewmember - a retired professor –
knew exactly what had happened. He explained that some years ago farmers stopped
keeping expensive harvesters and trucks on-site to use on their small farms.
Instead, armies of migrant harvesters followed maturing crops from south to
north and contracted with farmers to harvest their crops at a fraction of the
cost of owning and maintaining equipment. The problem this year was the crops
were ready while the harvesting army was somewhere in North Carolina.
Which brings us back to corn and soybeans still in the fields. I am sure the farmers want those crops gone before rain and
wind wipe out the harvest next week. Unfortunately, the farmers no longer have
the tools necessary to make the harvest on their schedule – they must wait for
the contractors to come back to town on a completely different schedule. If
Sandy does the harvesting with hurricane force winds and driving rain, the farmers lose.
Efficiency is a wonderful thing until it’s not.
Manufacturing (what’s left of it) in this country has undergone a major efficiency revolution in the last 15 years.
Companies have almost universally adopted “just-in-time”operations. Basically,
factories operate with very little raw material inventory on hand at any given
time. Rather, components are delivered mere days before they are incorporated
into the final product. This allows factories to reduce warehouse space and
quickly change components during the manufacturing process without having to
write down obsolete inventory.
Just-in-time manufacturing works great, until it doesn’t. The Japan earthquake of 2011 damaged factories that produced
specialized components and silicone for cars and iPhone chips. Within days over
130 factories had to cease operations because they ran out of parts. In April
2012 a fire at a German resin plant shut down auto plants in the United States a
few days later. In the past, the factories would continue operations using
existing inventory while engineers would search for alternatives for the
disrupted product.
What does this have to do with a hurricane?
About a dozen years ago Dominion Power – the power company for Virginia and part of North Carolina – “streamlined” their
maintenance division. Essentially, Dominion Power fired a bunch of linemen and
disaster recovery employees reasoning that surplus repair trucks from other
states could quickly assist in the event of a widespread outage. Nine years ago
Hurricane Isabel cut through Virginia (she was a tropical storm for most of the
trip through the old dominion), knocking out power to 98 percent of the Richmond
area. Over 2 million customers lost power and the system was not fully restored
for over two weeks. The State Corporation Commission issued a report the
following year saying Dominion power was generally well prepared and responded
the best that it could considering Isabel was a “whole tree” event, meaning lots
of large trees fell on power lines knocking out power.
The report did not address the fact that reduced maintenance staff may
have resulted in fewer trees being trimmed on or near power lines which could
have reduced the number of “whole trees” falling on power lines. There was only
a mention of anecdotal reports from customers and Dominion staff that there
were fewer linemen.
Hurricane Sandy is much larger than Isabel and could impact many more people. If other power companies adopted the same
philosophy as Dominion, where will the extra linemen come from to assist in
power restoration? Folks could be looking at power outages much longer than two
weeks. Anyone want to buy a generator?
But the government will surely help!
Really? Remember Hurricane Katrina?
Remember the response to the Rodney King police trial?
Sorry folks, you’re on your own. Stock up on water, batteries, and food.
If you’re in a flood zone, check into a mountain top hotel next week.
This storm reminds me of Hurricane Agnes (1972) in one ominous respect – if it continues on its predicted track, it
will slam into the Pocono and Appalachian mountains possibly dumping feet of
rain resulting in unprecedented flooding. Ask folks in Nelson County Virginia
how that turned out. Interestingly, I have not seen any mention of possible mountian flooding
and call to evacuate flood-prone areas in PA, NJ and NY.
Good luck and God bless everyone in the path of Sandy. Help your neighbors if you can!
a planned trip to the Myrtle Beach condo and opted instead for a trip to my sailboat
on the Potomac River. Sandy did little damage to the Myrtle Beach area but has her sights squarely set for a
wide area from south of the Potomac to Boston. Might as well prepare the boat.
As I drove through the Northern Neck of Virginia to the town of Kinsale, I noticed many farmers had planted winter wheat
crops which are like beautiful green lawns at this point. Other farms have corn
and soybeans ready for harvest. With the possibility of a devastating storm in a
few days, why aren’t the farmers getting those crops in? I remembered this past
spring. Virginia had a very mild winter and the winter wheat crop was ready for
harvest in early May but harvesting did not begin until June. I wondered why.
On a sailing trip during the summer, I told the crew my winter wheat observations. One crewmember - a retired professor –
knew exactly what had happened. He explained that some years ago farmers stopped
keeping expensive harvesters and trucks on-site to use on their small farms.
Instead, armies of migrant harvesters followed maturing crops from south to
north and contracted with farmers to harvest their crops at a fraction of the
cost of owning and maintaining equipment. The problem this year was the crops
were ready while the harvesting army was somewhere in North Carolina.
Which brings us back to corn and soybeans still in the fields. I am sure the farmers want those crops gone before rain and
wind wipe out the harvest next week. Unfortunately, the farmers no longer have
the tools necessary to make the harvest on their schedule – they must wait for
the contractors to come back to town on a completely different schedule. If
Sandy does the harvesting with hurricane force winds and driving rain, the farmers lose.
Efficiency is a wonderful thing until it’s not.
Manufacturing (what’s left of it) in this country has undergone a major efficiency revolution in the last 15 years.
Companies have almost universally adopted “just-in-time”operations. Basically,
factories operate with very little raw material inventory on hand at any given
time. Rather, components are delivered mere days before they are incorporated
into the final product. This allows factories to reduce warehouse space and
quickly change components during the manufacturing process without having to
write down obsolete inventory.
Just-in-time manufacturing works great, until it doesn’t. The Japan earthquake of 2011 damaged factories that produced
specialized components and silicone for cars and iPhone chips. Within days over
130 factories had to cease operations because they ran out of parts. In April
2012 a fire at a German resin plant shut down auto plants in the United States a
few days later. In the past, the factories would continue operations using
existing inventory while engineers would search for alternatives for the
disrupted product.
What does this have to do with a hurricane?
About a dozen years ago Dominion Power – the power company for Virginia and part of North Carolina – “streamlined” their
maintenance division. Essentially, Dominion Power fired a bunch of linemen and
disaster recovery employees reasoning that surplus repair trucks from other
states could quickly assist in the event of a widespread outage. Nine years ago
Hurricane Isabel cut through Virginia (she was a tropical storm for most of the
trip through the old dominion), knocking out power to 98 percent of the Richmond
area. Over 2 million customers lost power and the system was not fully restored
for over two weeks. The State Corporation Commission issued a report the
following year saying Dominion power was generally well prepared and responded
the best that it could considering Isabel was a “whole tree” event, meaning lots
of large trees fell on power lines knocking out power.
The report did not address the fact that reduced maintenance staff may
have resulted in fewer trees being trimmed on or near power lines which could
have reduced the number of “whole trees” falling on power lines. There was only
a mention of anecdotal reports from customers and Dominion staff that there
were fewer linemen.
Hurricane Sandy is much larger than Isabel and could impact many more people. If other power companies adopted the same
philosophy as Dominion, where will the extra linemen come from to assist in
power restoration? Folks could be looking at power outages much longer than two
weeks. Anyone want to buy a generator?
But the government will surely help!
Really? Remember Hurricane Katrina?
Remember the response to the Rodney King police trial?
Sorry folks, you’re on your own. Stock up on water, batteries, and food.
If you’re in a flood zone, check into a mountain top hotel next week.
This storm reminds me of Hurricane Agnes (1972) in one ominous respect – if it continues on its predicted track, it
will slam into the Pocono and Appalachian mountains possibly dumping feet of
rain resulting in unprecedented flooding. Ask folks in Nelson County Virginia
how that turned out. Interestingly, I have not seen any mention of possible mountian flooding
and call to evacuate flood-prone areas in PA, NJ and NY.
Good luck and God bless everyone in the path of Sandy. Help your neighbors if you can!